From COVID Pandemic To Possible Endemic

Oxford Languages defines an endemic as “(of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.” Infectious disease experts and health officials define it as “COVID.” 

This possible change in definition is associated with the popular authoritative opinion that COVID could become an endemic disease. The definition is clear, but what would this mean for those in the U.S. and across the globe? 

What factors will shape this transition from a pandemic to an endemic? And how long will this transition take? Will this transition actually happen? And, what is an endemic?

Popular Opinion Could Be Justified 

While forecasted to become endemic, this global opinion may not be too far-fetched with COVID now in its third year, and a startling 5.5 million deaths have already occurred worldwide. 

From the pandemic’s start, the world has seen immunity conferred from natural infection and vaccinations. We’ve seen social contact patterns develop, and the virus’s transmissibility rapidly speeds up, which plays a role in the evolution of the COVID virus. Overall, what does this endemic mean? 

Endemic Defined

An illness, disease, or infection is said to be endemic within a specific population when the infection is maintained within this geographical area at a baseline level without external inputs. 

• To become endemic, every infected person passes on the infection to another on average.
• In a susceptible population, the basic reproduction number of the infection must equal one. 
• In a population with immune persons, the basic reproduction number multiplied by the proportion of susceptible individuals in the population must be one. 
• The infection never dies out, neither does the number of persons increase exponentially.

Basically, should COVID turn from pandemic to endemic, the virus will never die out. In other words, the pandemic will not end even if the virus disappears. With this, the opinion, or hope, is that enough persons will gain immunity from COVID vaccinations and from natural infection. 

This then, as it is hoped, will lead to fewer transmissions, fewer hospitalizations, and fewer deaths even while COVID continues to transmit among the population. 

What Would This Mean For The U.S. Population And The World?

While much is speculated and predicted for a future ‘COVID endemic,’ some key points for what this would mean for the world are identified below: 

• A high possibility for yearly booster shorts
• A further impact on human’s immunity system: how long immune protection will last, the changing of the nature of that protection, a reduction in vaccine-conferred protection and the decline in the likelihood of infection, of severe disease if infected, and the possibility of transmission if infected. Also, the changing of the speed of responses
• Future burdens of illness and how populations tolerate this burden
• New evaluations on what to do about COVID and preventable diseases. 
• Massive changes in the way we live and what we accept as a new normal.
• Possible long-term improvements in individual and global health as well as public health infrastructure and disease monitoring and tracking
• New financial, emotional, and lifestyle impacts and struggles

WHO Advised Against Treating COVID As An Endemic “Illness” 

News reports reveal that the World Health Organization (WHO) warned against treating COVID as an “endemic” illness, with a large amount of uncertainty and an evolving virus that forever imposes new challenges. 

While the WHO believes that current COVID conditions are appropriate to open up the debate and endemic opinions, precautions must be taken when evaluating COVID and the current parameters observed. 

Currently, WHO believes that the world is not yet at a stage where we can call COVID endemic in 2022. 

Also, while there is a possibility to become endemic, WHO believes it depends on how we respond to current challenges and how the world continues to adhere to health and safety measures and widespread vaccinations. 

With this, U.S. citizens and the global community are advised to continue with vaccinations, boosters, health and safety practices, social distancing, and the wearing of masks.